In the current climate of market uncertainty, particularly with sentiment running low, it can be refreshing to engage in a discussion about optimism: has the bull market truly come to an end?

This question is not straightforward, as the nature of bull markets often reveals itself only in hindsightWhen one is caught in the midst of a volatile market, forecasted trends and speculation abound, creating an environment filled with uncertaintyTo explore this topic, we can consider two perspectives: one is founded on superstition, while the other draws on empirical belief.

The first viewpoint revolves around superstitionOver recent months, many investors have likely encountered a peculiar chart circulating across various social media platforms and chat groupsThis chart originates from a 2015 book entitled "The Essentials of Stock Market Investment," which has garnered a reputation as a remarkable read for stock market enthusiasts.

This book presents what could be termed a mystic prediction regarding the future trajectories of the Chinese A-shares market

It asserts that 2016 would witness a bull market, followed by a bear market in 2018, then a return to a bull market in 2019, and a structural bull-bear pattern in 2020. The subsequent years, specifically 2021, 2022, and 2023, are deemed to be predominantly bearishWhen examined as a whole, these predictions somewhat align with the market's actual performanceNotably, the author designates 2024 as a transitional year from bear to bull, suggesting it will mark a lower turning point, followed by a bull market in 2025 and an impressive bull market from 2026 to 2027.

It is unclear how many investors were lured into the A-share market in the aftermath of the “9.24” rally, swayed by such predictions steeped in mysticismFor those who subscribe to these predictions, perhaps maintaining that belief is advisableHowever, if even such a fantastical prophecy can be shaken by short-term market fluctuations, it raises serious doubts about the investor's confidence and understanding of market dynamics.

Yet, this emotional perspective prevalent among many investors creates a problematic narrative

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They often interpret market movements erratically; an uptick leads to bullish sentiment, while a dip can trigger panic and thoughts of impending doomRemarkably, such responses may reflect those of mystical believers who utilize fortune-telling methods rather than firm investment principles.

On the other hand, what lies at the core of rational investment strategies is grounded in recognized literature and theories of investmentThis second viewpoint embraces foundational belief.

From this rational perspective, determining whether the A-share market is presently in a bull cycle is secondary; what holds greater significance is the prospect of acquiring quality assets at undervalued prices.

John Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, has long advocated core investment principles in his many writings, summarizing a key formula for long-term stock market returns: they may approximately equal the dividend yield plus the earnings growth per share, coupled with fluctuations in market valuation.

A pertinent illustration highlighting this can be drawn from a chart presented by Morgan Asset Management, which reflects the long-term performance of the Asia-Pacific stock market (excluding Japan) since 2000. Over a span of 24 years, this market has appreciated by approximately 600%, yielding an annualized return near 8%. A deeper dive into the components of this growth reveals insights into its nature; the impressive returns over the decades did not stem from valuation gains but predominantly arose from robust dividend yields and growing corporate earnings.

Utilizing this framework to assess the A-share market, the same logic applies

In investment practices, it is essential to avoid overpaying for assets, as inflated valuations can substantially hinder returns involved in the processWith a focus on dividends and earning growth, investors can indeed achieve commendable, albeit not spectacular returns.

The dissection of the Wind All A Index by Youzhi Yuxing reveals that since late 2005, A-share market income predominantly derives from profit growth, with dividends becoming a minimal contributor over time due to a historical lack of high dividend practicesContrarily, unfavorable movements in valuations have marginalized overall returns by approximately 20%.

The findings suggest that the current trajectory of the A-share market aligns reasonably well with net asset growth trends, placing it in a valuation zone that is neither overly expensive nor surprisingly cheapAt this juncture, possessing patience to await dividend distributions and earnings increases becomes crucial.

This ties closely into current themes resonating throughout A-share market discussions

Following the surge on September 24, market stagnation has emerged, revealing significant internal divergences.

The crux lies in recognizing that while the macroeconomic policies introduced on September 24 have reignited some market confidence and initiated a degree of valuation repair, for the market to sustain its upward trajectory, robust enhancements in macroeconomic landscapes and corporate performances are essentialHowever, such transformations take time to materialize, typically evident only through the continued release of quarterly financial data that allows for accurate market scrutiny and validation.

Thus, patience becomes an indispensable ally in this context.

Reflecting on the history of the A-share market, it is apparent that the primary reason for poor investment experiences largely correlates with market euphoriaSuch frenzied enthusiasm often leads to remarkable short-term increases, sometimes surging upward by 100% within a year, resulting in extreme valuation exposure that, during subsequent bear markets, necessitates drastic corrections, typically manifesting as a significant price collapse which distorts overall investment experiences negatively

However, if we approach this analytically, the performance of the CSI 300 index thus far this year boasts a commendable double-digit increase, a feat that is commendable in its own right.

Investors elevate their grudges toward their experiences with U.Sequities not merely for the instances of substantial single-year jumps but principally because the S&P 500 index has achieved a more tempered average annual rise despite hosting similar coincidental peaks.

This pattern showcases the remarkable experience derived from minimizing substantial declines, wherein over the years, most investors entering different points in time enjoy shared growth benefits in following yearsIn stark contrast, the experience of A-share holders mirrors disappointment; varying entry years have led to drastically different investment outcomesFor example, the experience of those entering at the end of 2018 starkly contrasts with those investing at the end of 2020. This disparity is less severe in U.S

markets, where staggered entry points often still yield profits in ensuing years, thereby epitomizing a genuine slow bull trend.

From this vantage point, the ongoing behavior of the A-share market since September 24, which has avoided delirious sustained eagerness post-National Day, should be viewed positivelyAt the very least, the market has refrained from excessive valuation exposure while steering clear of exploiting newly investing parties as a means to boost profitsUltimately, the actual returns generated from the stock market must derive from enhancements associated with macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate profit growth, not from the practice of scalping newcomers.

Consequently, the existing conditions of the A-share market are not as dire as some may believe.

As for whether we are indeed still amid a bull market or if it has truly concluded, these inquiries carry little weight

What is paramount revolves around the ability of investors to procure assets at favorable valuations.

Consider the CSI 300 index's performance, which, by the close of November 25, had jumped a modest 19.78% since its inception on September 24.

If the pre-September 24 index is perceived as an undervalued mark, from a valuation perspective, ample room for downside is limited.

In such circumstances, patiently holding onto one's investments emerges as the most prudent course of action.

Should the market unfortunately retreat by 10%, valuations will once again approach undervalued territory—a reality reminiscent of levels observed in July and AugustIn such instances, investors might find themselves bolder, taking strategic incremental purchasing actions to capitalize on price dips.

It seems that whether or not the bull market has reached its conclusion is a minor concern

The essential factor rests in whether investors are ready to recognize the potency of valuation in the face of market declines, as I have advocated through increased buying during the adverse conditions seen earlier in the yearPossessing such resolve allows investors to perceive market fluctuations as opportunities rather than threats, psychologically maintaining composure irrespective of volatility.

Ultimately, the question of whether the bull market has ended may lack a definitive answerWhat comes to light instead are the rising and falling tides of market sentiment, embodying the emotional swings experienced by investors caught between hope and anxiety.

In this realm of uncertainty, investing is akin to navigating through life itself, filled with both challenges and new opportunitiesInstead of chasing the elusive specter of a “bull market,” it is far more vital to concentrate on corporate fundamentals and individual risk tolerance