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In recent times, the financial market has exhibited a certain level of volatility, resulting in relatively small fluctuations in asset pricesThis behavior has left investors with a sense of uncertainty regarding future trendsToday, I opted to invest in high-quality bond funds and overseas digital economy sectors, each amounting to 3,000 yuan, while also allocating 5,000 yuan to strengthen my position in the ChiNext board, a decision I do not present as an investment advice.
Meanwhile, in the U.Sstock market, there has been a small decline observed over the past couple of days; however, it remains within an upward-trending channelWith a new administration set to assume control, there are expectations of a relaxed regulatory environmentAdditionally, the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a gradual approach to interest rate cutsProjections for 2025 suggest that U.Sstocks could enjoy a robust and stable year ahead
The approaching Christmas season may also usher in a brief surge in market activity, indicating that buying strategies in downturns could be advantageousI have consistently invested in a fund linked to the NASDAQ, focusing heavily on seven key U.Sstocks known for their stability and high returnsI continued this strategy today by investing an additional 3,000 yuan, though again, I make no investment recommendations.
The market has shown frequent rotation across different sectors, rendering it challenging for investors to pinpoint a coherent themeInvesting in quality indices tends to be less risky and often yields superior returnsOver the past few days, the ChiNext board has maintained its vital support levels and has shown signs of breaking the downward trendline, indicating potential recoveryGiven its explosive growth potential, a reversal upwards could bring about significant returns, making it a target for investment
Recently, I've begun accumulating shares in one of the most popular ChiNext funds, which aligns closely with the index, exhibiting stability suitable for both short and long-term investmentsToday, I chose to invest an additional 5,000 yuan during the market dip, without offering investment advice.
When examining specific sectors like alcoholic beverages and renewable energy, both have recently formed symmetrical triangles, maintaining key support levelsThey have begun to recover after previously halting their declines and have now approached the upper boundaries of those trianglesShould they manage to breakthrough, a potential upward reversal could ensue, but uncertainty remains as they continue oscillating around critical resistance points.
For innovative pharmaceuticals, a similar narrative unfoldsAfter breaking through the upper boundaries of a price triangle, they are currently testing resistance levels again
If successful in surpassing these points, they may recapture previous peak valuesMy strategy remains one of holding onto my investments during these periods of fluctuation.
The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a rebound after a downturn in response to previous high resistance levelsRecently, it has oscillated near support levels, displaying signs of stabilization; however, the overall direction in the near term is still unclearThe securities market has also shown oscillating upward trends after hitting resistance at peak points, followed by a retreatPresently, it's hovering near the crucial upward trendline, and the last few days have seen marginal fluctuations.
The real estate sector has faced challenges, with declines upon encountering earlier high resistance pointsAs it falls above support levels, it exhibits sideways trading for the time beingThe semiconductor, military-industrial complex, and telecommunications sectors preceded these trends, displaying upward oscillation, only to be met with resistance and setbacks
Recently, there have been attempts at recovery in these markets, though they also lack definitive upward direction.
Conversely, the gaming and robotics markets have recently witnessed a surge, presently hitting significant prior resistance levelsA successful breach could potentially lead these sectors back to their historical peak, indicating substantial room for growth in the near termThere is also an apparent upward trajectory, with the robotics segment demonstrating resilience; despite a slight decrease today following a recent breakout, the decline remains limited.
Amidst this financial landscape, notable queries arise – particularly the wisdom of investing in stocks when the S&P 500 index reaches unprecedented heightsThe current year has been remarkable for stock markets, with the S&P 500 index breaking through the crucial 6,000 mark and continuing its ascent
While the previous two years have seen commendable market performance, concerns regarding potential corrections or adjustments linger among investors.
Some individuals hesitate to invest at what may appear to be market peaks, while those significantly invested might feel we are closer to market tops than bottomsYet, history provides a compelling insight regarding investing at all-time highsAlthough past performance does not guarantee future returns, it certainly can inform investment strategies.
Historically, stocks tend to continue their upward trajectory after reaching all-time highs, underlining a core principle in stock investment – that the long-term trajectory of stocks generally trends upwardsWith this in mind, it becomes unsurprising to witness the S&P 500 index reaching new heights repeatedly, as markets often create clusters of historical records in quick succession.
In fact, as we look forward to 2024, by December 6 of this year, the S&P 500 had already set 57 new closing records
This number falls short of historical potential, given that in 1995 alone, the market recorded highs 77 times! 2024 shares similarities with 1995 when then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan successfully orchestrated a soft landing for the economy, reducing unemployment without instigating a recession.
Presently, Jerome Powell, the current Fed Chair, aims for a similar outcome, striving to mitigate high inflation without compromising low unemployment ratesSo far, he seems to have achieved success, becoming a catalyst for economic stability with the first interest rate cut enacted in September of this year.
Investments made in 1995 yielded remarkable returns; anyone investing in the S&P 500 index fund back then saw their investments grow by 155% over the subsequent four years, translating to an impressive annual return exceeding 26%. Nevertheless, the internet bubble burst in 2000, leading to a market slump of over 45% until October 2002. Remarkably, those who had invested at the close of 1995 still realized an increase of 40% even at the lowest point during the implosion of the technology bubble.
Equally, no one can guarantee that the latter part of this decade will resemble the final years of the 1990s
However, historical trends suggest that markets can sustain prolonged rises even after setting impressive performance metrics and all-time highsTherefore, investing at historical peaks is often deemed a sound strategy.
This leads us to consider the typical market behaviors following the establishment of historical highsIt may surprise some to learn that the S&P 500 index tends to perform exceptionally well in the days following a historic closing highBetween 1970 and 2020, investments made on the day following such peaks resulted in an accumulated average return of 78.9% over five years—a significant increase compared to the 71.4% average returns for investments made at any other time.
Despite the inclination to wait for market pullbacks, data indicates that since 1970, investing on days when the closing price is below prior highs yielded worse returns over the next one to two years compared to buying at all-time highs
Given the context for 2024, the S&P 500 index has risen over 25% since establishing its initial all-time high in January.
This surge considerably exceeds the average return typically seen after hitting all-time highsFurthermore, it is essential to recognize that the first stocks reaching new highs tend to outperform averages significantlySo what we witness in 2024 should not be considered a mere phenomenon extending to 2025, yet investors should temper their expectations as they navigate potential market developments.
When navigating investments while the S&P 500 is trading near historic highs, finding high-performing individual stocks may present additional challengesFor patient investors willing to delve deep into company fundamentals, recognizing trends and macroeconomic factors impacting sectors, and conducting thorough equity evaluations can pave the way toward investment success
Identifying those fairly valued, high-quality companies is arguably a key secret to long-term investment success.
Alternatively, for those disinclined to dedicate so much time to analyzing stocks for potential outperformance over the S&P 500, index funds provide a sensible alternativeS&P 500 index exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ensure investments keep pace with the benchmark index, presenting an effective solution.
Current S&P 500 components indicate that smaller firms may offer greater opportunitiesHistorically, equal-weighted index funds have outperformed market-cap weighted indices over the long term, although this trend has fluctuated over the past decade.
While outperforming the S&P 500 may necessitate investing in stocks outside the index, this strategy comes with inherent risksIt is vital to recognize that even when leveraging historical trends as a guide, it remains unpredictable how long those larger trades will experience excellent performance.
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