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The stock market in the United States faced a slight decline today, with all three major indices dippingRecently, these indices have entered a bullish trajectory, but they encountered resistance that led to a short-term pullbackDespite these movements, the overall dips have been minimal, suggesting this could merely be a temporary correction within an upward trendThere's still a considerable distance to the lower edge of this upward channel, indicating the potential for further downward movement in the short term.
In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a notable drop today, once again testing a crucial upward trend lineShould this support level break down, a more significant correction could ensue that might create a bearish head-and-shoulders patternThis segment of the stock market has outperformed others over the long term, yet its high volatility and prolonged periods of fluctuation pose a significant psychological challenge for investors
Personally, I have a substantial holding in this sector, planning to follow in the footsteps of famed investor Warren Buffett and embrace a long-term investment strategy, even amidst the short-term market turbulence.
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index, which comprises Chinese concept stocks, had previously surged before experiencing a steady declineRecently, after reaching a low point, it rebounded with an impressive 8% rise, although it gave back over 4% the following dayThe current trend remains bullish, yet the index is again nearing critical resistance levels, introducing uncertainty for future movements.
The S&P real estate sector has been in a lengthy upward oscillation, but it has recently faced resistance halfway through its ascentA breakthrough above this resistance could open up substantial room for further gainsRecently, prices dropped close to an upward trend line, which may provide the necessary support for a rebound.
In the biotech sector represented by the S&P, it too is facing resistance as it oscillates downward, having formed a horizontal trading range just below a significant resistance level
The price currently remains distanced from its peak, but if it can break through the resistance, significant movement could followAfter briefly dipping below the upward trend line, it quickly recovered and is still trading around that line, leaving its future direction uncertain.
In the commodities market, gold futures have been on a steady upwards marchFollowing a sharp pullback, they've begun to recover, yet they are currently experiencing resistance that has caused them to trade sideways just above a key support levelRecent days have seen a consistent rebound, pushing prices back up to a previous high resistance level that, if surpassed, could lead to further gains.
Similar patterns are observed in silver futures, which have shown long-term upward movement but also faced short-term correctionsRecently, they found support along an upward trend line before settling into a sideways trade
A robust rebound over the last two days has led to a breakthrough of previous resistance levels; signs of a potential upward reversal are emerging.
On the other hand, oil futures are experiencing a downward trend as they approach a recent lowThere's been fluctuation just above this low support level, failing to gain momentum for a rise while remaining stable and above that critical pointThe outlook remains unclear, with oil and gas markets oscillating in a rectangle pattern across key resistance levels as they pull back in a downward trend—indicating that a further drop towards support may be in the cards.
As inflation data and interest rates take center stage, Wall Street indices are facing downward pressureOn Tuesday, major US stock indices closed lower, with declines in technology stocks overshadowing gains in the communications sector as investors await crucial inflation reports that could affect the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.
In the context of the S&P 500 Index, of its 11 main sectors, only three managed to post gains ahead of the consumer price index (CPI) report due in November, which is one of the final important reports before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 17-18. Current predictions suggest a slight uptick in the overall inflation rate from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, with the producer price index (PPI) report set to be released on Thursday.
Market sentiment appeared cautious as many remained on the lookout for CPI and PPI data, hoping for figures that would not heavily influence the Fed's upcoming policies
Experts like Mona Mahajan, the investment strategy chief at Edward Jones, noted, “the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode this week with hopes for numbers that won’t significantly impact Fed policy next week.” A consistent CPI data in line with projections could spur expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
The trading margins reflect that traders estimate a 86% likelihood for the Fed to cut rates next weekReports released on Friday disclosed an increase in the unemployment rate along with a better-than-expected rebound in employment growth, which had previously slowed down in October, causing heightened speculation.
According to Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina, the S&P 500 index has risen about 27% this year, underscoring the prevailing cautious sentiment from investors as economic data and Fed meetings loom ahead
“We are at a seasonally strong time of the year, and investors are merely catching their breath,” she added.
Investors are on high alert for indications that the US central bank may pause its easing cycle in JanuaryRecent comments from Fed officials hinted at a slowdown in the pace of monetary policy easing as the economy recoversBell remarked, “What the Fed does next week is less important than their outlook on future rate trajectories.”
As for the individual stock movements, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 154.10 points, or 0.35%, to close at 44,247.83 pointsThe S&P 500 index slipped 17.94 points, a decline of 0.30% to 6,034.91, while the NASDAQ Composite Index declined by 49.45 points, or 0.25%, to end at 19,687.24.
Among sectors, communications services saw a 2.6% increase, making it the standout performer in terms of percentage gain within the S&P 500, primarily fueled by a surge in Alphabet, Google's parent company, which saw its stock rise by 5.6% following the launch of a new chip.
Conversely, real estate stocks were the largest losers, down 1.6%. The technology sector contributed the most to the S&P's declines, dropping 1.3%. Oracle Corporation's shares plummeted 6.7%, as its second-quarter results fell below Wall Street expectations, impacting the overall S&P index negatively.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.5% underlining the tech sector’s challenges due to news of investigations against Nvidia for antitrust violations announced by China on Monday.
On a more positive note, Walgreens Boots saw a dramatic 17.7% increase in share price, becoming the biggest gainer by percentage in the S&P 500 index following reports of negotiations for a potential sale with private equity firm Sycamore Partners.
In contrast, Moderna Inc stands out as the largest percentage decliner in the S&P 500, with its stock price plunging by 9.1% as Bank of America resumed its "underperform" rating on the company.
Among airline stocks, Alaska Airlines shares rose by 13% after the company raised its profit forecast for the fourth quarter, while Boeing shares climbed 5.5% following reports of the resumption of 737 MAX production last week.
Despite increasing its annual earnings forecast, software firm MongoDB stock fell sharply by 16.9%.
In the mid-cap segment, luxury home-builder Toll Brothers saw a 6.9% dip in stock price after exceeding quarterly earnings expectations, but disappointing guidance for the current quarter dampened investor sentiment.
On the New York Stock Exchange, the ratio of declining stocks to advancing ones was 1.88:1, with 117 stocks reaching new highs while 42 struck new lows
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